Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 11.117173 12.735427 14.473965 16.476669 18.715903 21.138317 23.952935
2025-11-23 8.510123 10.660613 13.148875 16.224752 19.907580 24.157422 29.413377
2025-11-30 7.326094 9.719378 12.622193 16.372127 21.054672 26.672974 33.884237
2025-12-07 6.538744 9.132253 12.412448 16.816918 22.520781 29.597013 38.970213
2025-12-14 5.689208 8.327461 11.793360 16.611316 23.055472 31.288122 42.496203
2025-12-21 4.818296 7.383698 10.880431 15.905868 22.837298 31.940779 44.656287
2025-12-28 4.462176 7.108635 10.829427 16.327363 24.105406 34.554882 49.458048
2026-01-04 4.115457 6.804637 10.698782 16.605693 25.163451 36.905410 53.978118
2026-01-11 3.705907 6.360567 10.319738 16.483262 25.624040 38.426845 57.393948
2026-01-18 3.339918 5.944447 9.941230 16.320335 25.993973 39.809796 60.641786
2026-01-25 3.058163 5.633219 9.692233 16.323209 26.588721 41.515639 64.389885
2026-02-01 2.842044 5.407765 9.555316 16.479679 27.406704 43.560875 68.685810
2026-02-08 2.596414 5.113518 9.292263 16.429425 27.919368 45.199876 72.491219
2026-02-15 2.356210 4.804925 8.980460 16.276225 28.256487 46.582258 75.962846
2026-02-22 2.189450 4.610432 8.841224 16.388179 29.004994 48.600938 80.443989
2026-03-01 2.095045 4.540631 8.909203 16.846607 30.327962 51.549306 86.442993
2026-03-08 1.905444 4.269485 8.600210 16.635942 30.532043 52.740393 89.745649
2026-03-15 1.665037 3.872616 8.031946 15.931237 29.864363 52.504346 90.779164
2026-03-22 1.599116 3.822067 8.096770 16.352703 31.123341 55.410553 96.895902
2026-03-29 1.519597 3.735068 8.085238 16.631632 32.143413 57.955992 102.506162
2026-04-05 1.398616 3.547007 7.864627 16.508954 32.449004 59.324367 106.237368
2026-04-12 1.283904 3.360351 7.631671 16.345836 32.668866 60.548290 109.759110
2026-04-19 1.196403 3.225565 7.491560 16.348703 33.182449 62.279236 114.167440